Stephen Curry 2017 Finals Impact // Craig Luschenat

 The point of this case study was to see the impact Stephen Curry had on the 2017 NBA Finals and to see if he had a legitimate argument for Finals MVP. The way I did this was by looking at Curry’s impact in a plethora of varieties.

First, I wanted to look at the basic box score numbers for both Curry and Durant. For Curry, he averaged 26.8 points, 9.4 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game on 44% from the field, 39% from three, and 90% from the line. For Durant, he averaged 35.2 points, 5.4 assists, and 8.2 rebounds on 55% from the field, 47% from three, and 92% from the line. In terms of box plus minus Curry was a plus thirty and Durant was a plus thirty-three.

Next, I wanted to quantify Curry’s impact and to do this I had two separate categories. First was his direct points, which were his actually points scored, the points he assisted on, and his foul assists (points a player scored at the free throw line after being fouled on Curry’s pass); so in each game I added all three numbers together to get his direct points. The second category I had was his gravity points, which were hockey assists, double hockey assists, no help, no rotation, and screen assist (All in video breakdown). I think most people would agree Curry has the greatest gravity in NBA history; gravity is the pull a player has on a defense because of a certain skill set they posses. For example DeAndre Jordan has gravity towards the rim because of his alley-oop catching ability; this forces the defense to shade in towards the paint to stop this from happening. In Curry’s case it’s his three-point shooting and play making abilities. These two skills cause defenses to do a couple things, first is, they try to deny him from ever catching the ball, which means the defender on Curry never helps off of him and most of the time just face guards him. This opens lanes for Curry’s teammates to attack because there is less help defense (See Below). The second positive Curry’s gravity has is when he is dribbling; in pick and roll situations Curry was typically blitzed (hard trapped by his defender and the screen setters defender) in this Cleveland series. This allowed Curry to extend the defense and find the open man to pass it to, which typically gave the Warriors a 4 on 3 advantage.

After I counted all Curry’s direct points and gravity points I would add them together to get his total impact or the “Curry Impact”. For the entire series Curry averaged 50.2 direct points per game, which was an average of 34.6% percent of the offense; his direct + gravity points (Curry Impact) averaged 63.2 points per game or 51.2% percent of the Warriors offense. This was also not just for the time Curry was on the floor, but for the entire game, which makes this even more impressive. Curry averaged 37.2 minutes per game for the series.

Next, I wanted to dig deeper to see how many of KD’s points and assists Curry influenced or assisted on. To do this I looked at all the gravity points, basic assists, and foul assists Curry affected. For example, if Curry assisted or hockey assisted on KD’s points I counted it in the points column; if Curry had a hockey assist and KD was the passer in the middle I counted that in KD’s assist column. Curry directly assisted on 22 of KD’s baskets for a total of 49 points during this series; if you just subtracted these points from KD’s scoring average he would of averaged 25.2 points per game (Curry averaged 26.8). If you subtract the points KD assisted Curry it was a total of 4 baskets or 9 total points; if you subtract these 9 points Curry would of averaged 25.0 points per game. Curry also hockey assisted on 12 baskets or 28 total points throughout the series; these accounted for 5 points and 3 assists KD had during the series (KD didn’t hockey assist any of Curry’s points); if you subtract these points as well KD would have averaged 24.4 points per game. Curry foul assisted on another 7 shots throughout the series for a total of 9 points, 8 of which were KD’s points; if you subtract these points as well KD would have averaged 22.8 points per game. Finally, Curry’s gravity (See Below) accounted for 13 baskets or a total of 26 points, 7 belonging to KD.

After subtracting all of these plays where Curry had a direct affect on KD, his final stats were an of averaged 20.0 points and 5.0 assists per game, rather than 35.2 and 5.4. Now a counter argument would be KD Still had to score the baskets that he did even if Curry did pass or affect his points. My counter argument to that would be on all the live plays Curry affected, 35 of those points were wide-open (not including foul shots) (See Below). If you were to subtract these wide-open points, KD would have averaged 28.2 points per game, which is a huge difference from 35.2 points per game.

In conclusion, I believe the Finals MVP could have gone either way in this series, just really depends where you place value. It’s hard to deny the big timely shots that KD had during the series and the impact he also had on the offense of end. It should be noted; Curry also had a tremendous series though, accounting for more than half of the Warriors offense throughout the series. He also nearly averaged a triple double and had only one less rebound than KD had during the series (8.2 vs. 8.0). Regardless, these are two exceptional players that both had amazing series respectively.

Curry Impact:

Game 1: 113-91 GSW à Curry : 34 min, +20, 28 Pts, 10 Ast (=22 pts)

·      Direct Points = 51 pts or 45% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 69 pts or 61% of GSW total points

·      KD à 37 min, +16, 38 Pts, 8 Ast (16pts)

·      Curry Impact = 27 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (11/7) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 2: 132-113 GSW à Curry : 36 min, +21, 32 Pts, 11 Ast (=30 pts)

·      Direct Points = 62 pts or 46% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 79 pts or 59% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +21, 33 Pts, 6 Ast (14pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (20/5) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 3: 118-113 GSW à Curry : 39 min, +11, 26 Pts, 6 Ast (=13 pts)

·      Direct Points = 39 pts or 33% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 50 pts or 42% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +0, 31 Pts, 0 Ast (0pts)

·      Curry Impact = 10 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (23/3) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 4: 137-116 CLE à Curry : 37 min, -25, 14 Pts, 10 Ast (=22 pts)

·      Direct Points = 40 pts or 34% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 45 pts or 38% of GSW total points

·      KD à 39 min, -22, 35 Pts, 4 Ast (10pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 0 Ast = (22/4) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 5: 129-120 GSW à Curry : 40 min, +3, 34 Pts, 10 Ast (=23 pts)

·      Direct Points = 59 pts or 45% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 73 pts or 56% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +18, 39 Pts, 5 Ast (12pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (26/4) W/O Curry’s Impact

*Curry’s Direct Points Average: 50.2 points per game or 34.6% of the Warriors offense.

*Curry’s Gravity Points Average: 63.2 points per game of 51.2% of the Warriors offense.