Stephen Curry 2017 Finals Impact // Craig Luschenat

 The point of this case study was to see the impact Stephen Curry had on the 2017 NBA Finals and to see if he had a legitimate argument for Finals MVP. The way I did this was by looking at Curry’s impact in a plethora of varieties.

First, I wanted to look at the basic box score numbers for both Curry and Durant. For Curry, he averaged 26.8 points, 9.4 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game on 44% from the field, 39% from three, and 90% from the line. For Durant, he averaged 35.2 points, 5.4 assists, and 8.2 rebounds on 55% from the field, 47% from three, and 92% from the line. In terms of box plus minus Curry was a plus thirty and Durant was a plus thirty-three.

Next, I wanted to quantify Curry’s impact and to do this I had two separate categories. First was his direct points, which were his actually points scored, the points he assisted on, and his foul assists (points a player scored at the free throw line after being fouled on Curry’s pass); so in each game I added all three numbers together to get his direct points. The second category I had was his gravity points, which were hockey assists, double hockey assists, no help, no rotation, and screen assist (All in video breakdown). I think most people would agree Curry has the greatest gravity in NBA history; gravity is the pull a player has on a defense because of a certain skill set they posses. For example DeAndre Jordan has gravity towards the rim because of his alley-oop catching ability; this forces the defense to shade in towards the paint to stop this from happening. In Curry’s case it’s his three-point shooting and play making abilities. These two skills cause defenses to do a couple things, first is, they try to deny him from ever catching the ball, which means the defender on Curry never helps off of him and most of the time just face guards him. This opens lanes for Curry’s teammates to attack because there is less help defense (See Below). The second positive Curry’s gravity has is when he is dribbling; in pick and roll situations Curry was typically blitzed (hard trapped by his defender and the screen setters defender) in this Cleveland series. This allowed Curry to extend the defense and find the open man to pass it to, which typically gave the Warriors a 4 on 3 advantage.

After I counted all Curry’s direct points and gravity points I would add them together to get his total impact or the “Curry Impact”. For the entire series Curry averaged 50.2 direct points per game, which was an average of 34.6% percent of the offense; his direct + gravity points (Curry Impact) averaged 63.2 points per game or 51.2% percent of the Warriors offense. This was also not just for the time Curry was on the floor, but for the entire game, which makes this even more impressive. Curry averaged 37.2 minutes per game for the series.

Next, I wanted to dig deeper to see how many of KD’s points and assists Curry influenced or assisted on. To do this I looked at all the gravity points, basic assists, and foul assists Curry affected. For example, if Curry assisted or hockey assisted on KD’s points I counted it in the points column; if Curry had a hockey assist and KD was the passer in the middle I counted that in KD’s assist column. Curry directly assisted on 22 of KD’s baskets for a total of 49 points during this series; if you just subtracted these points from KD’s scoring average he would of averaged 25.2 points per game (Curry averaged 26.8). If you subtract the points KD assisted Curry it was a total of 4 baskets or 9 total points; if you subtract these 9 points Curry would of averaged 25.0 points per game. Curry also hockey assisted on 12 baskets or 28 total points throughout the series; these accounted for 5 points and 3 assists KD had during the series (KD didn’t hockey assist any of Curry’s points); if you subtract these points as well KD would have averaged 24.4 points per game. Curry foul assisted on another 7 shots throughout the series for a total of 9 points, 8 of which were KD’s points; if you subtract these points as well KD would have averaged 22.8 points per game. Finally, Curry’s gravity (See Below) accounted for 13 baskets or a total of 26 points, 7 belonging to KD.

After subtracting all of these plays where Curry had a direct affect on KD, his final stats were an of averaged 20.0 points and 5.0 assists per game, rather than 35.2 and 5.4. Now a counter argument would be KD Still had to score the baskets that he did even if Curry did pass or affect his points. My counter argument to that would be on all the live plays Curry affected, 35 of those points were wide-open (not including foul shots) (See Below). If you were to subtract these wide-open points, KD would have averaged 28.2 points per game, which is a huge difference from 35.2 points per game.

In conclusion, I believe the Finals MVP could have gone either way in this series, just really depends where you place value. It’s hard to deny the big timely shots that KD had during the series and the impact he also had on the offense of end. It should be noted; Curry also had a tremendous series though, accounting for more than half of the Warriors offense throughout the series. He also nearly averaged a triple double and had only one less rebound than KD had during the series (8.2 vs. 8.0). Regardless, these are two exceptional players that both had amazing series respectively.

Curry Impact:

Game 1: 113-91 GSW à Curry : 34 min, +20, 28 Pts, 10 Ast (=22 pts)

·      Direct Points = 51 pts or 45% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 69 pts or 61% of GSW total points

·      KD à 37 min, +16, 38 Pts, 8 Ast (16pts)

·      Curry Impact = 27 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (11/7) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 2: 132-113 GSW à Curry : 36 min, +21, 32 Pts, 11 Ast (=30 pts)

·      Direct Points = 62 pts or 46% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 79 pts or 59% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +21, 33 Pts, 6 Ast (14pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (20/5) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 3: 118-113 GSW à Curry : 39 min, +11, 26 Pts, 6 Ast (=13 pts)

·      Direct Points = 39 pts or 33% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 50 pts or 42% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +0, 31 Pts, 0 Ast (0pts)

·      Curry Impact = 10 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (23/3) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 4: 137-116 CLE à Curry : 37 min, -25, 14 Pts, 10 Ast (=22 pts)

·      Direct Points = 40 pts or 34% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 45 pts or 38% of GSW total points

·      KD à 39 min, -22, 35 Pts, 4 Ast (10pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 0 Ast = (22/4) W/O Curry’s Impact

Game 5: 129-120 GSW à Curry : 40 min, +3, 34 Pts, 10 Ast (=23 pts)

·      Direct Points = 59 pts or 45% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 73 pts or 56% of GSW total points

·      KD à 40 min, +18, 39 Pts, 5 Ast (12pts)

·      Curry Impact = 13 of KD’s points/ 1 Ast = (26/4) W/O Curry’s Impact

*Curry’s Direct Points Average: 50.2 points per game or 34.6% of the Warriors offense.

*Curry’s Gravity Points Average: 63.2 points per game of 51.2% of the Warriors offense.

Stephen Curry NBA Finals Impact 2015 // Craig Luschenat

The point of this case study was to see the impact Stephen Curry had on the 2015 NBA Finals and to see if he should have been named Finals MVP or if Andre Iguodala should have.

To quantify Curry’s impact I had two separate categories. First was his direct points, which were his actually points scored, the points he assisted on, and the foul assists (points a player scored at the free throw line after being fouled on Curry’s pass); so in each game I added all three numbers together to get his direct points. The second category I had was his gravity points, which were hockey assists, double hockey assists, no help, no rotation, and screen assist (All in video breakdown). I think most people would agree Curry has the greatest gravity in NBA history; gravity is the pull a player has on a defense because of a certain skill set they posses. For example DeAndre Jordan has gravity towards the rim because of his alley-oop catching ability; this forces the defense to shade in towards the paint to stop this from happening. In Curry’s case it’s his three-point shooting and play making abilities. These two skills cause defenses to do a couple things, first is, they try to deny him from ever catching the ball, which means the defender on Curry never helps off of him and most of the time just face guards him. This opens lanes for Curry’s teammates to attack because there is less help defense (See No Help/Rotation in video breakdown). The second positive Curry’s gravity has is when he is dribbling; in almost every pick and roll situation Curry was blitzed (hard trapped by his defender and the screen setters defender) in this Cleveland series. This allowed Curry to extend the defense and find the open man to pass it to because two defenders were on him. Typically this resulted in a pass to Draymond Green who then was able to attack downhill in a 4 on 3 advantage.

After I counted all Curry’s direct points and gravity points I would add them together to get his total impact or the “Curry Impact” on the offense side of the ball. For the entire series Curry’s direct points impact was an average of 44.6% percent of the offense per game and his direct + gravity points impact or the “Curry Impact” was an average of 59.1% percent of the offense. This was also not just for the time Curry was on the floor, but for the entire game, which makes this even more impressive. Curry averaged 42.1 minutes per game for the series and games 1&2 went to overtime.

The next area I wanted to look at was Curry’s affect on Iguodala’s offense. I’ll start with the basic box score numbers as a baseline; Curry averaged 26 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.2 rebounds on 44% FG, 38.5% 3pt, 88.5% FT: Iguodala averaged 16.3, 4 assists, and 5.8 rebounds on 52% FG, 40% 3pt, and 35% FT. As you can see, a case for Iguodala would be he shot a higher percentages from the field and from three, however the counter argument would be his shots were much different from Curry’s. Iguodala was considered wide open (five feet of space from defender) on 57% of his shots, while Curry only on 7% of his shots. This is also very noticeable on Iguodala’s shots in my video breakdown. However, the second area you could make an argument for Iguodala in terms of the box score stats would be box plus/minus. For the series Iguodala was a plus 62 for the series, while Curry was a plus 52 for the series. Now this isn’t a huge difference, but it’s definitely an edge for Iguodala.

Next, I wanted to dig deeper to see how many of Iguodala’s points and assists Curry affected or assisted on. To do this I looked at all the gravity points, basic assists, and foul assists Curry affected. For example, if Curry assisted or hockey assisted on Iguodala’s points I counted it in the points column; if Curry had a hockey assist and Iguodala was the passer in the middle I counted that in Iguodala’s assist column.  After subtracting all the plays where Curry had an imprint on Iguodala, his final stats were an of averaged 8.6 points and 3.3 assists per game, rather than 16.3 and 4. Curry directly assisted on eight of Iguodala’s baskets during the series and seven of eight would be considered wide-open. He also hockey/double hockey assisted on five of his baskets, four of which would be considered wide-open, and foul assisted on another two shots. There were also ten wide-open shots that Curry directly passed or hockey passed to him that were all missed (5 and 5). However, Iguodala only assisted Curry on three baskets during the series; two of them were in a fast break and the other one was a very contested three Curry made. 

It was amazing to see the total impact Curry had not only on Iguodala, but everyone on the team. Throughout the six game series Curry assisted on 25 baskets that would be considered “wide-open” (five feet of space from defender) and created another 20 that would also considered wide-open but were missed shots. He also created another 11 wide-open hockey/double hockey assisted shots that were missed. There were another 27 shots that he created that were considered makeable, but not wide open; this equated to an extra 54 points that the Warriors didn’t score. I also tracked the total missed opportunities that Curry either directly or indirectly created a good shot for a teammate and Warriors didn’t score. These were the categories of missed assists, shots missed on no rotation/help off of Curry, open plays, and missed hockey assists (All in the video breakdown); this total number was 162 points that the Warriors could have scored because of Curry, but didn’t.

There were also a lot of little factors along the way that Curry impacted, but it was hard to quantify. Examples of these factors are his non-stop movement, which really drains defenders, as noted after game three when Mathew Dellavedova had to get IV’s injected to rehydrate himself. Also, the impact his gravity had on one on one situations that he created for teammates in the post. The fouls the Cavs picked up from chasing him around trying to grab him or the big timely shots Curry hit in a lot their games and fourth quaters. Finally, the 37-point game he had in the pivotal game five win that really shifted the series after it was tied 2-2. There were so many small and large factors that he impacted throughout this entire series.

In conclusion, Stephen Curry was clearly the most important and valuable player in this series. Being the engine for almost 60% of the Warriors total offense is an astounding number and the reason why he should have been named the 2015 NBA Finals MVP.

Video Breakdown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZleczQHedXY

Curry Impact:

Game 1: 108-100 GSW à Curry : 42 min, +4, 26 Pts, 8 Ast (=20 pts)

·      Direct Points = 52 pts or 48% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 72 pts or 66% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 31 min, +8, 15 Pts, 2 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 10 of Iguodala’s points/ 1 Ast.

Game 2: 95-93 CLE à Curry : 42 min, -2, 19 Pts, 5 Ast (=13 pts)

·      Direct Points = 34 pts or 36% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 41 pts or 44% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 36 min, +2, 7 Pts, 5 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 3 of Iguodala’s points/ 1 Ast.

Game 3: 96-91 CLE à Curry : 43 min, -6, 27 Pts, 6 Ast (=13 pts)

·      Direct Points = 42 pts or 46% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 60 pts or 65% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 36 min, +6, 15 Pts, 5 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 6 of Iguodala’s points/ 1 Ast.

Game 4: 103-92 GSW à Curry : 41 min, +18, 22 Pts, 7 Ast (=16 pts)

·      Direct Points = 44 pts or 42% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 60 pts or 58% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 36 min, +16, 22 Pts, 0 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 10 of Iguodala’s points/ 0 Ast.

Game 5: 104-91 GSW à Curry : 42 min, +24, 37 Pts, 4 Ast (=9 pts)

·      Direct Points = 50 pts or 48% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 65 pts or 62% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 42 min, +16, 14 Pts, 7 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 8 of Iguodala’s points/ 1 Ast.

Game 6: 105-97 GSW à Curry : 43 min, +14, 25 Pts, 8 Ast (=18 pts)

·      Direct Points = 51 pts or 48% of GSW total points

·      Direct + Gravity Points = 64 pts or 60% of GSW total points

·      Iguodala à 36 min, +14, 25 Pts, 5 Ast

·      Curry Impact = 12 of Iguodala’s points/ 0 Ast.

Craig Luschenat - Jaylen Brown

Craig Luschenat: 

Jaylen for his career shoots 36% from three and 35% from 16 feet to the three-point line. After calibrating all his miss fundamentals together against the rest of the NBA I can conclude that he is between a 36%-38% three-point shooter. His miss fundamental totals were most comparable to Rodney Hood.

Jaylen’s biggest problem in his shot delivery is that he drops his hands far too often. His dropped hands rate is 37% per 100 missed shots, which is 13% over the elite shooters average of 24%. More specifically, he drops his hands when he’s trying to get his shot off quick or his shot is contested, which is a problem a lot of players have. The other smaller error he commits is weak/no-stepping into his shot. He needs to consistently rhythm 1/2 step into his shot to create energy, balance, and lift going towards the rim.

Jaylen has great form, a high release point, and really good fundamentals on his shot delivery. Also, he is in the elite percentile for every category except dropped hands and doesn’t commit any extra fundamental errors. This is a trait all elite shooters share, which I believe Jaylen can become. When he shoots the ball the way he should his shot looks as good as anyone in the league (See Clip 4 of “Good Misses”).

Breakdown:  Per 100 Missed Shots:

1.     Dropped Hands: Totalà 37% of the time he missed.

2.     Leaning/Fading Back: Totalà 18% of the time he missed.

3.     Feet off Balance: Totalà 12% of the time he missed.

4.     Good Misses: Totalà 37% of the time he missed.

5.     Weak/Non-Step into Shot: Totalà 21% of the time he missed.

6.     Missed Short: Totalà 24% of the time he missed.

Video Breakdown: Craig Luschenat 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGT_C64TelQ

www.youtube.com/craigluschenat